Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Giant robot battle: is it on?
In July 2015, with a move that fired up the imaginations of moviegoers, US-based MegaBots challenged the Japanese robot Kuratas to a giant robot duel. Japan quickly accepted the challenge, noting that the US bot would have to be improved first. "Just building something huge and sticking guns on it. It’s….Super American," said the Kuratas team.
Kuratas has been around since 2012, stands 12'5", and weighs 4.5 tons. MegaBots' answer is the Mk.III mech, armed with a drill augur, a tree shear, and a spinning saw called "The Dentist." Although both bots are designed to shoot projectiles (ranging from BBs to 3-pound paintballs) the actual duel would be close-quarters bot-to-bot combat. MegaBots is preparing by testing how the Mk.III holds up to impacts from a wrecking ball.
The date of the duel has been delayed, with the last scheduling update appearing in July 2016. MegaBots says that the battle is still on, but that negotiations for the date and venue are ongoing. MegaBots began unveiling components of the Mk.III bot in fall 2016 but no complete bot has been revealed yet.
Will the MegaBots vs Kuratas battle occur before 2019?
This question will resolve as positive if the respective giant robots (or very similar efforts by essentially the same builders) meet and fight on or before December 31, 2018, as reported by a corporate press release or a credible, verified news outlet.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.