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33 comments
198 forecasters

Fully autonomous self-driving cars by 2018?

35%chance
35%chance
ResolvedNo
ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 35% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline
Authors:
zavaindar
Opened:Dec 31, 2015
Closes:Mar 1, 2016
Resolved:Jan 9, 2018
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 2, 2016
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When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

L3
15 Apr 2021
L4
20 Oct 2020 11:00
L5
04 Aug 2029
216 forecasters

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

Tesla
18 Jun 2027
Any Service
29 Oct 2026
Waymo
16 Nov 2026
198 forecasters

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

Feb 2036
(14 May 2030 - Apr 2043)
Feb 2036
(14 May 2030 - Apr 2043)
101 forecasters
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