computing precise contingencies generating intelligent wisdom modeling definitive forecasts assembling probable futures modeling critical wisdom mapping the future computing intelligent contingencies aggregating predictive forecasts calculating contingent estimations mapping quantitative predictions mapping intelligent understanding aggregating contingent estimations modeling critical wisdom exploring quantitative predictions
Rankings Categories Find Questions

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Fully autonomous self-driving cars by 2018?

Self-driving cars (SDC) are anticipated to become increasingly integrated into the driving population in the coming years; greatly reducing accident rates, giving driving independence to the impaired, and reducing fuel consumption are a few major benefits (see more here and here.) Google and Tesla in the U.S. and Baidu in China lead the race to bring their SDC technology to market, and other companies like Nissan and Mobileye are also invested in autonomous vehicle technology.

Tesla's Elon Musk marked 2018 as the due date for fully autonomous Tesla vehicles in a recent interview. Meanwhile, Google does have autonomous SDC prototypes being live tested in cities. Still, economic and regulatory obstacles have to be overcome.

Will there be a car commercially-available in at least two US states with an MSRP of less than $75,000 and delivery date within 2018, that can autonomously carry its passenger between two generic drivable destinations that are 20-100 km apart via public roads in those states?

(updated 2/20 to clarify resolution criteria of two US states and public roads)

Categories: Technological Advances, Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning, Technology – Automotive

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site
random question question list

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.