Question

Fully autonomous self-driving cars by 2018?

Resolved:No

33 comments33

Total Forecasters198

Community Prediction

35%

(22% - 51%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 35%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

19.2

Authors:

zavaindar

Opened:

Dec 31, 2015

Closes:

Mar 1, 2016

Resolves:

Jan 9, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 2, 2016

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When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

22 Aug 2029

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22 Sep 2026

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

Dec 2037

Authors:

zavaindar

Opened:

Dec 31, 2015

Closes:

Mar 1, 2016

Resolves:

Jan 9, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 2, 2016

AI Demonstrations

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

The Future of Autonomous Trucking Is Being Tested Today

Newsweek•Jul 3, 2025

Tesla sends driverless Model Y from factory to customer to promote its robotaxi tech

•Jul 2, 2025

Elon Musk’s Tesla completes first driverless car delivery in Texas

•Jul 2, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

22 Aug 2029

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

22 Sep 2026

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

Dec 2037