generating probable understanding assembling precise futures delivering quantitative wisdom composing contingent predictions modeling definitive predictions mapping the future delivering definitive predictions formulating probable wisdom composing predictive understanding forecasting probable understanding computing predictive wisdom formulating contingent wisdom exploring quantitative insights computing precise predictions


Fully autonomous self-driving cars by 2018?

Self-driving cars (SDC) are anticipated to become increasingly integrated into the driving population in the coming years; greatly reducing accident rates, giving driving independence to the impaired, and reducing fuel consumption are a few major benefits (see more here and here.) Google and Tesla in the U.S. and Baidu in China lead the race to bring their SDC technology to market, and other companies like Nissan and Mobileye are also invested in autonomous vehicle technology.

Tesla's Elon Musk marked 2018 as the due date for fully autonomous Tesla vehicles in a recent interview. Meanwhile, Google does have autonomous SDC prototypes being live tested in cities. Still, economic and regulatory obstacles have to be overcome.

Will there be a car commercially-available in at least two US states with an MSRP of less than $75,000 and delivery date within 2018, that can autonomously carry its passenger between two generic drivable destinations that are 20-100 km apart via public roads in those states?

(updated 2/20 to clarify resolution criteria of two US states and public roads)

Make a predictionUpdate your predictionFinal prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Thanks for predicting!

Since you're not signed in, your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats