Question

Fully autonomous self-driving cars by 2018?

Resolved:No

33 comments33

Total Forecasters198

Community Prediction

35%

(22% - 51%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 35%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

46.7

Community Peer Score

19.2

Authors:

zavaindar

Opened:

Dec 31, 2015

Closes:

Mar 1, 2016

Resolves:

Jan 9, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 2, 2016

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Authors:

zavaindar

Opened:

Dec 31, 2015

Closes:

Mar 1, 2016

Resolves:

Jan 9, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 2, 2016

AI Demonstrations

Artificial Intelligence

Analysis-Why Tesla's robotaxi launch was the easy part

•Jun 24, 2025

Get out the Waymo! Tesla robotaxis hit Austin’s streets

•Jun 24, 2025

Tesla Misses Robotaxi Launch Date, Goes With Safety Drivers

Forbes•Jun 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

22 Aug 2029

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

22 Sep 2026

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

Dec 2037