5
80 forecasters
Will the Trump administration or a GOP state governor deploy armed officers or troops to a polling or early voting site in 2026?
18%chance
Top Key Factors
Federal and State Election Laws Ban Federal Forces from Polling Placesbrennancenter.org•Mar 11, 2024
Decreases Likelihood
Trump administration says it has no plans for ICE officers at polls. Activists are preparing anyway | The Associated Pressap.org•Oct 8, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
Legal barriers are substantial
Decreases Likelihood
Federal and State Election Laws Ban Federal Forces from Polling Placesbrennancenter.org•Mar 11, 2024
Decreases Likelihood
Trump administration says it has no plans for ICE officers at polls. Activists are preparing anyway | The Associated Pressap.org•Oct 8, 2026
Decreases Likelihood
Legal barriers are substantial
Decreases Likelihood