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    Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?

    Created by tb and
    co-authors , {{coauthor.username}}
    on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}

    Ice cream melts faster than it used to.

    In 2016, the average global temperature, according to the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) data analysis, was the warmest on record, besting the previous mark which was set in 2015.

    There is unambiguous evidence that climate change, driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration (as well as other greenhouse gases), is responsible for the relentless upward trend. Nonetheless, stochastic variations do lend a short-term veneer of unpredictability to near-term measurements.

    A relatively recently closed Metaculus question that asked whether 2019 will break the global heat record was quite popular -- 564 predictions were registered, with the community of predictors ascribing a median 22% chance of going over the top. Given the interest, it seems reasonable to roll the question out for the coming year:

    Will 2020 again set a new record? Or will it fall off the recent record-setting pace?

    This will resolve in the positive if the NASA GISS global average temperature for 2020 is published above that of 2016, the current record holder.

    Similar Metaculus questions were asked for 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019.

    Categories:
    Environment – Climate

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

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