forecasting quantitative estimations forecasting intelligent wisdom mapping intelligent insights calculating definitive wisdom formulating intelligent forecasts mapping the future calculating definitive contingencies delivering contingent understanding aggregating precise predictions predicting predictive forecasts crowdsourcing quantitative predictions modeling critical wisdom delivering contingent contingencies delivering definitive contingencies

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?

SpaceX is currently developing its next-generation Starship launch vehicle. They are currently pursuing an unorthodox approach to vehicle development in which they rapidly construct and test many prototypes in parallel in an open field, with the intention of iterating and learning from each prototype. Although this has led to an impressive amount of visible progress in a short amount of time, it has also resulted in several spectacular failures along the way. This has led some to speculate that the continued destruction of prototypes is inevitable.

With that in mind, we ask:

How many more Starship prototypes (after SN4) will be destroyed before a prototype reaches an altitude of at least 1 km?

  • The definition of Starship is the same as in this question.
  • To trigger resolution, the prototype must be intact at an altitude of 1 km, having ascended by firing its engines. It does not count if an explosion flings portions of the prototype to an altitude of 1 km.
  • A prototype is destroyed if it is engulfed in fire, is visibly warped or crushed, no longer keeps its fuel/oxygen inside itself, or is broken into multiple large pieces (not on purpose). It is considered destroyed even if a substantial portion can be salvaged, e.g. Starhopper whose nosecone blew off, but received a replacement nosecone and went on to complete a successful test. In principle, a single continually-rebuilt "Starship of Theseus" could be counted as destroyed multiple times.
  • Damage that can in principle be repaired without replacing the pressure vessel (for example, a contained engine failure) is not considered destruction. A prototype that is retired without being destroyed (for example, SN2) is not destroyed. Admins may use their judgment for edge cases.
  • For clarity, the prototypes that qualify as destroyed so far are linked in the first paragraph: Starhopper (front fell off), MK1 (front fell off enthusiastically), SN1 (bottom fell off), SN3 (front went to the back), SN4 (all pieces fell off simultaneously).
  • "Prototypes" also include things like the SN7 test tank.
  • If Starship production is moved inside a building or is otherwise no longer monitored 24/7 by nosy fans, a statement by SpaceX or a SpaceX executive that a Starship has been destroyed is also acceptable. If no statement is made, or a statement only states that a prototype was "damaged" or that an "anomaly" occurred without further detail, it is not considered evidence of destruction.
  • If a successful hop does not occur by the resolution date, the question resolves as the number of destroyed prototypes at that time, not as ambiguous.
Categories: Industry – Space

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site
random question question list

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.