7
111 forecasters
Will the U.S. and Iran return to war before December 2026?
35%chance
14.8% this week
Top Key Factors
Netanyahu has incentives to continue attacks
Increases Likelihood
Trump may resume strikes after the midterms
Increases Likelihood
U.S. force buildup enables limited strikes
Increases Likelihood
Negotiations alongside buildup may deter renewed war
Decreases Likelihood
Iran threatens retaliation if attacked
Increases Likelihood