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What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?


The 59th presidential election for the United States of America will be held on November 3, 2020. Voter turnout is uncertain, in part because of the likely influence of the ongoing pandemic, but also with regard to concerns around potential voter suppression and the efficacy of voting by mail.

This question asks: What will the voter turnout be for the US presidential election as a percentage of the voting age population in the United States?

Resolution will be by credible media reports. In the case of disagreement between different media outlets, the turnout calculated by the Federal Election Commission in its report on Federal Elections in 2020 will be used. See here for a copy of the 2016 report.

This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.

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