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When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?
While it would be difficult to pick a single defining characteristic of Donald Trump’s presidency, his use of Twitter to communicate with the American public has frequently made not only national but international news. It has also prompted multiple Metaculus questions, such as these two. Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic Nominee, has made rather less use of Twitter, and currently has 6.2M followers to Trump’s 82.1M.
This question asks: When will the number of Twitter followers for the account @JoeBiden first be equal to, or greater than, 10% of the number of followers of @realdonaldtrump?
If @realdonaldtrump is permanently banned from Twitter, or the account is deleted, this question resolves as the date of the ban/deletion. If positive resolution has not occurred by January 1, 2023, this question resolves as “After December 2022.”
This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.
Metaculus help: Predicting
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.