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How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?
The music video for Luis Fonsi’s Despacito, featuring Daddy Yankee, is currently the most watched video on YouTube, and has held the number 1 spot for longer than any previous video. As of June 14, 2020, it had been viewed 6,812,000,000 times.
This question asks: On January 12, 2021, 4 years after the video was originally uploaded, how many views will Despacito have?
This question resolves as the number of views listed on YouTube at the link posted above, at the time a Metaculus admin checks the official youtube page on January 12, 2021. If the video is removed from YouTube, resolution will be ambiguous.
This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.
Metaculus help: Predicting
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
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