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What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?

The 2018 US House and Senate elections saw the legislative branch of the United States become more diverse than at any previous point in its history. Despite this increase, it is still significantly less diverse than the general US population, in terms of both race and gender. This question is one of two which asks users to predict whether, and to what extent, the recent increase in diversity will continue in 2020.

Specifically, the question asks: What fraction of the elected seats in the US Congress, following the November 3 election, will be held by women?

The question resolves following the final release of election results (including any recounts) as the total number of women serving in the US House of Representatives, plus the total number of women elected to the US Senate, divided by 535. Regardless of sex assigned at birth, or sex listed on birth certificates or other legal documentation, (as the extent to which documentation can be changed varies between states) any person elected to Congress who publicly identifies as a woman at the time at which she is elected is counted for the purposes of resolution.

This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.


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