Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?
The 2018 US House and Senate elections saw the legislative branch of the United States become more diverse than at any previous point in its history. Despite this increase, it is still significantly less diverse than the general US population, in terms of both race and gender. This question is one of two which asks users to predict whether, and to what extent, the recent increase in diversity will continue in 2020.
Specifically, the question asks: What fraction of the elected seats in the US Congress, following the November 3 election, will be held by women?
The question resolves following the final release of election results (including any recounts) as the total number of women serving in the US House of Representatives, plus the total number of women elected to the US Senate, divided by 535. Regardless of sex assigned at birth, or sex listed on birth certificates or other legal documentation, (as the extent to which documentation can be changed varies between states) any person elected to Congress who publicly identifies as a woman at the time at which she is elected is counted for the purposes of resolution.
This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.