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How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?
The 80,000 Hours Podcast is a long-form interview series with people who are working on what the creators consider to be the world’s most pressing problems. Interviews on the show are unusually long, and getting longer, with the current record holder being an interview with David Chalmers on the nature and ethics of consciousness, which is 4 hours and 42 minutes in length.
This questions asks: How long would it take a listener to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020, at normal speed?
Question resolves as the total length in hours of all podcast episodes listed on the 80,000 Hours website, where the date listed is anywhere from January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020.
This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.