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When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?

The video live-streaming service Twitch is primarily used for streaming liveplay of video games. In fact, all 50 of the currently most-followed accounts are video-game streamers, with Fortnite being the most common title played by streamers.

The user who currently has the most followers, Ninja, stopped using the platform on August 1, 2019 in order to move to the platform Mixer. He still has 14.7m followers on Twitch, despite not having posted a video since then.

This question asks: When will a Twitch user have more followers than Ninja?

Question resolves as the first time at which the most-followed account on Twitch is someone other than Ninja. If Ninja’s account is deleted from Twitch, the question will resolve as the time of deletion.

This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.


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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

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