aggregating quantitative predictions computing critical futures modeling contingent forecasts computing precise understanding predicting probable wisdom mapping the future delivering intelligent insights generating predictive estimations assembling intelligent futures delivering calibrated insights generating predictive wisdom formulating definitive estimations mapping probable understanding mapping critical wisdom

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?

The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the Alaskan purchase of 1867, and the purchase of the former Danish West Indies in 1917. Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when Hawaii became a state in 1959. However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its reintegration. However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that 58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union. Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030?

The question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union.

Resolution details:

  • The procedure to leave the US state need not go through official legislative channels (e.g. introducing a bill to leave the union and this bill receives majority support in the state legislature)

    • In case the process does not occur through official legislative channels, the question resolves positively if credible news media reports that the US State has seceded, or has been ejected out of the union
  • Positive resolution requires the relevant state to have existed at least one year prior to its secession

    • For example, granting entry to the union to some territory, and subsequently revoking it within one year is not sufficient for positive resolution

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.