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Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?

The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the Alaskan purchase of 1867, and the purchase of the former Danish West Indies in 1917. Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when Hawaii became a state in 1959. However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its reintegration. However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that 58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union. Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030?

The question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union.

Resolution details:

  • The procedure to leave the US state need not go through official legislative channels (e.g. introducing a bill to leave the union and this bill receives majority support in the state legislature)

    • In case the process does not occur through official legislative channels, the question resolves positively if credible news media reports that the US State has seceded, or has been ejected out of the union
  • Positive resolution requires the relevant state to have existed at least one year prior to its secession

    • For example, granting entry to the union to some territory, and subsequently revoking it within one year is not sufficient for positive resolution


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