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How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?
Having originally started as a DVD sales and rental company, Netflix, is now a dominant force in online streaming for film and television, and boasts over 180 million subscribers worldwide.
This question asks: How many paid subscriptions will Netflix have, worldwide, on December 31, 2020
The question resolves according to the relevant copy of Netflix’s quarterly earnings report as the sum of the “Paid memberships at the end of the period” cells for each region, which can be found on the “Regional Information” tab of the Financial Statements spreadsheet.
This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.
Metaculus help: Predicting
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
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