exploring definitive estimations forecasting definitive contingencies formulating probable predictions delivering precise understanding calculating probable estimations mapping the future predicting quantitative forecasts predicting precise contingencies mapping calibrated estimations delivering critical predictions generating calibrated estimations calculating predictive forecasts assembling accurate insights forecasting accurate estimations

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?

Approximately 6,200 persons attended Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally yesterday, (June 20). Pictures in the news shows people crowded together, most not wearing masks. Health officials have cautioned against attending large meetings such as this out of concerns for spreading Coronavirus. Many people believe it is foolish.

So how are we to define "a spike"? How many of those 6,200 attendees have to get Coronavirus to declare it a "spike"? Lets consider some simplistic statistics, Oklahoma has a population of about 3,957,000. COVID cases are spiking in Oklahoma, reporting 1,392 new cases from June 17-20. If we apply those numbers to the rally, we might expect 1,392/3,957,000 * 6,200 = 2.18 new COVID cases among the 6,200 attendees of the rally.

Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?

To be resolved positively reports by a health authority, NY Times, Washington Post, ABC, NBC, PBS, CBS or Fox must report that more than 19 persons likely became infected with COVID by attending the Tulsa rally on June 20.

This reporting must take place before August 1st, 12PM EST.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.