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304 forecasters

2020 Leaderboard

[short fuse] Given that the NYT publishes an article on Scott Alexander, will it include his full name?

Ambiguous

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4 comments15 forecasters

Russell Rickford out of Cornell before 2030

3 comments18 forecasters

AI-written article in the New York Times

In 2026-202759.3%

In 2028-202926.9%

2030 or later13.6%

1 comment14 forecasters

First curated AI-written LessWrong post

Current estimate

7 comments15 forecasters

Banksy's identity revealed before 2031?

53 comments276 forecasters

AI NY Times Best Seller before 2030

19 comments154 forecasters

SBF as the richest person by 2050

6 comments35 forecasters

Date of Bryan Caplan's First Lost Bet

Current estimate

29 comments48 forecasters

SBF Prison Sentence Length 2030

Current estimate