Question

What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric in 2030?

43 comments43

Total Forecasters118

Community Prediction

10.1%

(5.89% - 16.1%)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	5.891%	10.08%	16.13%
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	5.891%	—
median	10.08%	—
upper 75%	16.13%	—

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Authors:

Gaia

Opened:

Jun 26, 2020

Closes:

Dec 31, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2031

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 28, 2020

Economy & Business

Technology

UK electric car sales up by a third in first half of 2025, preliminary data suggests

Guardian•Jul 4, 2025

Only 15 EV Brands in China Will Survive by 2030, AlixPartners Predicts

•Jul 4, 2025

AlixPartners Forecasts Massive Shakeout in China's EV Market by

•Jul 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?

24%

What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles?

12.4

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

54.2

Authors:

Gaia

Opened:

Jun 26, 2020

Closes:

Dec 31, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2031

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 28, 2020

Economy & Business

Technology

UK electric car sales up by a third in first half of 2025, preliminary data suggests

Guardian•Jul 4, 2025

Only 15 EV Brands in China Will Survive by 2030, AlixPartners Predicts

•Jul 4, 2025

AlixPartners Forecasts Massive Shakeout in China's EV Market by

•Jul 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?

24%

What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles?

12.4

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

54.2