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What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030?


In 2018 there were just over 1 million electric vehicles on American roads, a milestone for the industry that took eight years to arrive at. As EV popularity and manufacturing capacity trend upward, the Edison Electric Institute predicts the jump to the next million US EV’s will only require three years, expecting that number to climb to 18.7 million by 2030. With 273.6 million vehicles registered in the US in 2018, EV’s then represented .36% of the vehicles on the road. The Edison Institute predicts that number will rise to 7% by 2030.

Many electric vehicle batteries rely on lithium to run, and analysts are speculating on the potential impacts of the coronavirus on the supply of lithium batteries as an intervening factor in the industry’s growth. Chinese suppliers produced 79% of the lithium hydroxide used in all electric vehicles in 2019. With the rise of the pandemic, Chinese battery manufacturers have limited or stopped all production and lithium prices are beginning to rise.

Forbes reports:

While most of the manufacturers have already restarted their production, the outbreak is estimated to set Chinese battery producers back by 26GWh of output in 2020.This halt in production has created supply shortages for western carmakers, as automakers, such as Fiat Chrysler, PSA Group, General Motors, Daimler and Ford, have their plants in the province of Hubei, where the Coronavirus took its first hit.


What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030?


This question resolves as the percentage of US cars on the road that are fully electric, according to the number of EV's reported by ZSW Data service and the total number of US vehicles reported by Statista. Should these services be discontinued, comparable credible sources will be utilized in their place, as determined by Metaculus admins.

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