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Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?

Trump's rally on June 23 at the Dream City Church filled the church to its capacity of 3,000 people. News reports showed most not wearing masks which were required, (but not enforced), by a order issued by Phoenix's Democratic mayor.

Arizona is experiencing a spike in Coronavirus infections: some 12,897 new cases over the last 5 days (June 17-22). Arizona has a population of about 7,297,000. In a crowd of 3,000 we might then expect about 5 new infections. If more than 20 attendees come down with COVID-19 within 2-14 days, we can comfortably conclude that the rally was a foci of contagion.

This question will resolve positively if major news outlets or an Arizona Health Authority determines that more than 19 persons became infected by attending the rally at the Dream City Church.

If no such reporting comes out before August 15th, the question resolves negatively.


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