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51
155
forecasters
25
51 comments
155 forecasters
2020-2021 Leaderboard
Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?
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3 comments
18 forecasters
AI-written article in the New York Times
In 2024
0.1%
In 2025
0.1%
In 2026-2027
61.7%
In 2028-2029
28%
2030 or later
10.2%
3 comments
88 forecasters
NYT v. Sullivan no longer good law in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
9%
2027-2028
15%
53 comments
276 forecasters
AI NY Times Best Seller before 2030
53%
chance
4 comments
15 forecasters
Russell Rickford out of Cornell before 2030
42%
chance
21 comments
18 forecasters
1500 annual NYC murders before 2050
8%
chance
2 comments
110 forecasters
DOJ files charges against journalist under Espionage Act in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
21%
2027-2028
30%
18 comments
426 forecasters
How many US journalists charged with crimes before 2027?
Current estimate
74.7 journalists
4 comments
53 forecasters
US govt maintain list of AI safety incidents by 2030?
33%
chance