delivering quantitative understanding assembling quantitative forecasts computing intelligent contingencies modeling calibrated contingencies crowdsourcing critical wisdom mapping the future aggregating accurate estimations crowdsourcing quantitative futures generating precise predictions calculating intelligent insights composing calibrated predictions formulating contingent forecasts generating predictive contingencies aggregating predictive contingencies

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?

Mash together drones, Uber, and driverless cars – hallmarks of our age – and you get flying autonomous taxis. Flying cars are almost a cliche in futuristic fiction, but have never been closer to reality.

Multiple companies are developing flying passenger vehicles, including Ehang, E-volo, Airbus AeroMobil, Lilium Aviation and yes, Uber.

Many of these ventures are looking to a 2020 or 2021 date for beginning commercial flying car/taxi operations in the U.S. Airbus' version, Vahana aims to test a prototype this year. Chinese company Ehang has more than 100 test flights under its belt and has already secured permits to begin flight tests in Nevada. Ehang commercial flights are expected to begin this year in Dubai.

Will flying taxis take off in the United States by 2021?

This question will resolve as positive if the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in the United States with full FAA approval on or before December 31, 2020. The passenger must be unaffiliated with the provider of the vehicle, and pay for the service.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.