Question

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

67 comments67

Total Forecasters441

Community Prediction20%

Make a Prediction

community: 20%

median 20.0%mean 28.8%

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Tactical nuclear weapon

India

Pakistan

Strategic nuclear weapon

Physics

France

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

7.56

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

1.01

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Tactical nuclear weapon

India

Pakistan

Strategic nuclear weapon

Physics

France

US Thought Risk of Russia Using a Nuclear Weapon Was at 50% in 2022, New Woodward Book Says

AntiWar•Oct 10, 2024

Nobel Peace Prize 2024 won by Japan’s Nihon Hidankyo for efforts to rid world of nuclear weapons

CNN•Oct 11, 2024

Nuclear-Armed China Issues Weapons Use Warning

Newsweek•Oct 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

7.56

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

1.01

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%