Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
Log in
Sign Up
16
141
forecasters
19
16 comments
141 forecasters
2020-2021 Leaderboard
If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?
Follow
share
embed
Resolved
Yes
Timeline
Histogram
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments (16)
Timeline
Key Factors (0)
Question Info
Similar Questions
No key factors yet
Add some that might influence this forecast.
3 comments
18 forecasters
AI-written article in the New York Times
In 2024
0.1%
In 2025
0.1%
In 2026-2027
61.7%
In 2028-2029
28%
2030 or later
10.2%
4 comments
15 forecasters
Russell Rickford out of Cornell before 2030
42%
chance
2 comments
118 forecasters
AI-authored paper published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?
63%
chance
53 comments
276 forecasters
AI NY Times Best Seller before 2030
53%
chance
1 comment
14 forecasters
First curated AI-written LessWrong post
Current estimate
04 Sep 2025
7 comments
15 forecasters
Banksy's identity revealed before 2031?
31.9%
chance
3 comments
88 forecasters
NYT v. Sullivan no longer good law in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
9%
2027-2028
15%
8 comments
136 forecasters
25% of NYT Best Sellers Written by AI by 2050
33%
chance