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    If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?

    Created by holomanga on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}.
    Community prediction hidden until {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_period_ends_time | dateStr}}
    Published by holomanga on {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}}.

    Question

    On June 22nd, Scott Alexander took down the blog Slate Star Codex due to an in-progress article by a technology reporter from the New York Times, replacing it with a post explaining his rationale. According to Alexander, the journalist was going to publish Scott's real name in association with his blog in this article, as part of a general NYT policy of including real names in articles.

    While no article was published within two weeks of this, the Metaculus community median currently assigns a high probability that some article mentioning the topic will be released by July 2021.

    If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander before July 2021, will it include his surname?

    If the NYT publishes no such articles by that date, this will resolve ambiguously. If the NYT publishes multiple such article by that date, this will resolve positively if any of them contain his surname.

    A similar short-fuse question resolved ambiguously on 2020-07-09.

    Categories:
    Social issues

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