16 comments
141 forecasters
If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?
85%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 85% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jul 10, 2020
Closes:Mar 1, 2021
Resolved:Feb 13, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 10, 2020
When will the New York Times publish an article that it claims or acknowledges is 100% written by AI?
13 forecasters
Will Russell Rickford cease to be a faculty member of Cornell before 2030?
42% chance
11
Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?
70% chance
134