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What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?
Anthony writes on Trump's re-election chances,
I'd like to meta-predict that no matter how dire things start to look for Trump (if they do), this question will have a floor of ~20%, because predictors will be so psychologically burned by the last election that they will be loathe to go below that.
Will this prediction come true? This question resolves as the minimum credence (in percentage points) of the community prediction while the question is open. The minimum credence can be found by running this short python script,
import json import requests data = json.loads(requests.get("https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1100/").text) credences = [moment['x1']['q2'] for moment in data['community_prediction']['history']] print(min(credences))
As of writing the question, the script prints 25%.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.