9 comments
142 forecasters
Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?
92%chance
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Authors:
Opened:Jul 16, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 18, 2020
When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?
Sep 2050
(Dec 2036 - 2108)
Sep 2050
(Dec 2036 - 2108)
140 forecasters
Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?
43% chance
70
Five years after AGI, will there be widely available radical life extension treatment?
65% chance
87