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Deaths from Worst Earthquake in 2020s

Question

On Friday March 11, 2011, the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

See this Wikipedia page for the deadliest earthquakes in history.

How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake from 2020 - 2029?

This question will resolve as the estimated number of deaths occuring from the most deadly earthquake occurring in the period between January 1, 2020 to January 1, 2030. The resolution will be determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,

  1. The national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.

  2. The U.S. Geological Survey.

  3. The local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.

  4. The most prominent scientific study, as determined by having the most citations according to Google Scholar.

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