12 comments
81 forecasters
As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jul 15, 2020
Closes:Apr 26, 2022
Resolved:Jul 1, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 17, 2020
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When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
27 Sep 2027
(09 Apr 2026 - May 2031)
27 Sep 2027
(09 Apr 2026 - May 2031)
1.7k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
May 2033
(04 Oct 2028 - Mar 2045)
May 2033
(04 Oct 2028 - Mar 2045)
1.8k forecasters
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
3.36 years
(-1.59 - 13.7)
3.36 years
(-1.59 - 13.7)
65 forecasters