Question
As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?
Resolved:Jun 2030Total Forecasters81
Community Prediction
May 2035
(May 2031 - Oct 2040)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <21 Jul 2023 | 3.4% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | May 2031 | — |
| median | May 2035 | — |
| upper 75% | Oct 2040 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2110 | 1.1% | — |
What was the final result?Jun 2030
Community Baseline Score
26.2
Community Peer Score
16.5
Authors:
Opened:Jul 15, 2020
Closes:Apr 26, 2022
Resolves:Jul 1, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 17, 2020
Authors:
Opened:Jul 15, 2020
Closes:Apr 26, 2022
Resolves:Jul 1, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 17, 2020