🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?

Resolved :Jun 2, 20302035-05-31
13
12
Total Forecasters81
Community Prediction2035-05-31 (2031-05-16 - 2040-10-31)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
<2023-07-21
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2110-01-04
...
...
...
...
...
3.4%
2031-05-16 02:51
2035-05-31 22:36
2040-10-31 10:17
1.1%

What was the final result?Jun 2, 2030

Community Baseline Score
26.2
Community Peer Score
16.5
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Tamay
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Metaculus
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
2016-2025 Leaderboard
Turing test
Machine learning
Philosophy
Linguistics
Artificial general intelligence

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