🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?

Resolved :4949.6
8
27
Total Forecasters59
Community Prediction49.6 (48.5 - 50.3)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
...
...
...
48.54
49.58
50.34

What was the final result?49

Community Baseline Score
119.6
Community Peer Score
11.6
Authors:
alexrjl
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Elections
Politics
2016-2025 Leaderboard
Instant-runoff voting
Maine
Nebraska
US Electoral College
First-past-the-post voting
2024 Elections (US)
Plurality voting
Washington, D.C.

Comments

? comments