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50
110
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43
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110 forecasters
Artificial Intelligence
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How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?
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Billions of Param of Largest ML Model by 2030
Current estimate
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8
Dec 2034
6
Sep 2034
4
07 Oct 2029
2
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GPT-6 release date?
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Dates Publicly Downloadable Large AI Models
4
Mar 2033
6
Dec 2032
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09 Oct 2030
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GPT-3 scaling plateau in < 3 OOMs
30%
chance
3 comments
8 forecasters
FLOP usage for training transformative AI
Current estimate
5.5×10³⁰ FLOP
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When will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be publicly available?
Current estimate
26 Dec 2027