50 comments
110 forecasters
How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jul 21, 2020
Closes:Jul 8, 2021
Resolved:Jan 1, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 23, 2020
How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?
929k B
(180k - 8.03M)
929k B
(180k - 8.03M)
51 forecasters
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?
21 forecasters
Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?
22% chance
54