6 comments
37 forecasters
When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Aug 6, 2020
Closes:Nov 1, 2020
Resolved:Dec 30, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 8, 2020
When will a language model be developed that, when tested, yields approximately human-level output?
05 Jun 2024
(05 May 2023 - 10 Feb 2027)
05 Jun 2024
(05 May 2023 - 10 Feb 2027)
36 forecasters
What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?
60.8%
(51.6 - 72.1)
60.8%
(51.6 - 72.1)
47 forecasters
When will an AI achieve an score of 1.5 or higher in the RE-bench at any time budget between 8h and 32h?
14 Dec 2027
(09 May 2027 - 27 Jan 2029)
14 Dec 2027
(09 May 2027 - 27 Jan 2029)
40 forecasters