Question

Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?

Resolved :Yes

8 comments8

Total Forecasters45

Community Prediction

60%

(54% - 62%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-2.8

Community Peer Score

2.6

Authors:

isinlor

Opened:

Aug 15, 2020

Closes:

Mar 30, 2021

Resolves:

Dec 23, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 17, 2020

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Artificial Intelligence

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How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

1.44M

Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?

65%

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

28%

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