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45 forecasters

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45 forecasters

AI Technical Benchmarks

Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?

ResolvedYes

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10 comments53 forecasters

Billions of Param of Largest ML Model by 2030

Current estimate

13 comments13 forecasters

5 million token context AI

Current estimate

8 comments37 forecasters

Development of Human-Level Language Models

Current estimate

6 comments60 forecasters

When will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be publicly available?

Current estimate

0 comments25 forecasters

Dates Large AI Models Released

3 comments19 forecasters

Russian LLM in Chatbot Arena top 100 before 2027?

22 comments30 forecasters

GPT-3 scaling plateau in < 3 OOMs

13 comments23 forecasters

AI Book Summarization Commonly Available

Current estimate