Question

Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters65

Community Prediction

90%

(85% - 94%)

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50%

community: 90%

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jul 27, 2020

Closes:

Dec 1, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 29, 2020

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

90%

Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?

60%

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

1.04M

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jul 27, 2020

Closes:

Dec 1, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 29, 2020

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

90%

Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?

60%

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

1.04M