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What will China's human development index (HDI) score be in 2030?


The Human Development Index (HDI) is a composite score of national well-being developed and maintained by the United Nations. It combines health (longevity), education (years of schooling) and economic (GNI per capita) into a single metric for year to year modeling. China has been increasing very quickly in this metric, presumably due to catch-up effects from the economic depression caused by communism. Such catch-up effects are well-studied in economics, and can be seen for countries that were bombed in World War 2 (mainly Japan and West Germany), and in other wars. However, at some point, catch-up effects end because the indicator has reached its long-term stable trend. It is unclear, though, where this trend might be for China. Japan is currently at 0,915, South Korea at 0.906. Both have relatively fast growth rates in years 2010-2018 compared to many Western countries (e.g. Norway at 0.16/year, Germany at 0.25/year). China's current growth-rate for the same period is currently an astronomical 0.95/year.

This question asks:

What will China's HDI score be in 2030?

  • This question resolves as China's score according to the UN's Human Development Report 2031. The latest version of the report can be found here.

  • If the UN stops publishing this value, or substantively changes the definition (for example by adding more components), this question resolves as ambiguous.

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