Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?
Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.
The Global Health Security (GHS) Index is "the first comprehensive assessment and benchmarking of health security and related capabilities across the 195 countries that make up the States Parties to the International Health Regulations.". It assesses countries on their capability to prevent and mitigate epidemics and pandemics based on 140 questions organized across 6 categories, 34 indicators, and 85 subindicators. It uses scores to these questions to create index scores for countries and also an overall GHS Index score for the world. The GHS is a joint project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, and The Economist Intelligence Unit. It was first published in 2019.
This question asks: What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?
In 2019, the average overall GHS Index score was 40.2 out of a possible score of 100.
This question will resolve to the average overall GHS Index score published in their 2030 report — as in, the report that is published during 2030. If no report is published in 2030, this will resolve to the average overall index score of the most recent report published after 2027. If the most recent report is one that is published in or before 2027, this will resolve ambiguous.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
Embed this question
You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.