283 forecasters

Will China reduce their carbon emissions per GDP by 60% by 2030?

68%chance

Forecast Timeline

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Authors:

Opened:

Jul 17, 2017

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 18, 2017

Environment & Climate

How China’s New Emissions Pledge Could Radically Alter Climate Change

Scientific American•Sep 30, 2025

China has announced its first target to cut emissions in real terms. What does it mean for Australia?

Guardian•Sep 25, 2025

China’s Leader Makes Landmark Pledge to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Democracy Now•Sep 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will China reach net zero carbon emissions?

(Nov 2052 - 2079)

(Nov 2052 - 2079)

Will China's CO2 emissions peak before 2030?

How much CO2 will China produce in 2025, in tons?

(10.2B - 11.7B)

(10.2B - 11.7B)