4 comments
26 forecasters
How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?
Current estimate
5.7 paths
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 4, 2020
Closes:Jan 31, 2028
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 6, 2020
Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?
79% chance
90
Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?
32% chance
40
In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?
85% chance
30