Question
When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?
Total Forecasters47
Community Prediction
30 Jun 2023
(23 Jun 2022 - 06 Mar 2025)
Make a Prediction
CDF
This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 23 Jun 2022 | — |
| median | 30 Jun 2023 | — |
| upper 75% | 06 Mar 2025 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Aug 2030 | 4.4% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Aug 14, 2020
Closed:Dec 31, 2021
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2029
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 16, 2020
When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?
18 Feb 2025
When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?
18 Aug 2025
What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?
47.5
Authors:
Opened:Aug 14, 2020
Closed:Dec 31, 2021
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2029
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 16, 2020
When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?
18 Feb 2025
When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?
18 Aug 2025
What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?
47.5