Question

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?

Total Forecasters90
Community Prediction
27 Nov 2025
(12 Dec 2024 - 04 Apr 2027)

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CDF

QuartilescommunityMy Prediction
lower 25%12 Dec 2024
median27 Nov 2025
upper 75%04 Apr 2027
Upper bound
>Dec 20390.9%
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Authors:
Opened:Sep 28, 2020
Closes:Dec 31, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 30, 2020