Question

Will Metaculus's predictions significantly improve in the next 6 months?

Resolved :No

14 comments14

Total Forecasters57

Community Prediction

55%

(35% - 62%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 55%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-17.5

Community Peer Score

21.9

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Jul 23, 2017

Closes:

Oct 15, 2017

Resolves:

Feb 4, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 25, 2017

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How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

1.02

Will Metaculus exist in 2030?

95%

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

85%

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