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7
17
forecasters
8
7 comments
17 forecasters
Metaculus
[Metaculus] When will the feature to share private questions go live?
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27 Dec 2020
result
29 Oct 2020 UTC
Resolved
29 Oct 2020 UTC
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36 comments
117 forecasters
Date of Last Metaculus Resolution
Current estimate
Mar 2047
10 comments
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Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?
2.4%
chance
55 comments
539 forecasters
Metaculus Existence in 2030
98%
chance
86 comments
166 forecasters
Total Number of Metaculus Predictions
6 comments
60 forecasters
When will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be publicly available?
Current estimate
26 Dec 2027
107 comments
202 forecasters
Self-Driving Taxis Available to Metaculites
Tesla
08 May 2027
Any Service
11 Jan 2027
Waymo
02 Apr 2027
14 comments
62 forecasters
AI resolving questions on Metaculus
2025
result:
No
2030
70%
2035
91%
2040
90%
2050
96%
4 comments
12 forecasters
Most Impactful Area
Indirect Impact (Questions on the Platform)
30%
Direct Impact (Programs with Partners)
26%
Indirect and Direct Impact, Roughly Equally
20%
Software We've Built
14%
Something Else
10%