83 forecasters

Is the Metaculus prediction better than all users?

50%chance

50%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 50% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jul 22, 2017

Closes:

Oct 20, 2017

Resolved:

Jan 12, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 24, 2017

Economy & Business

Computing and Math

2017 Leaderboard

Will Metaculus exist in 2030?

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?

(May 2033 - 2121)

(May 2033 - 2121)

109 forecasters