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Is the Metaculus prediction better than all users?

Question

The Metaculus prediction uses a sophisticated model to calibrate and weight each user, ideally resulting in a prediction that's better than the best of the community.

Over the next 50 questions to resolve, will it achieve that goal?

This question will resolve positive if the Brier score of the Metaculus prediction is lower than the Brier score of each individual user for the next 50 (binary) questions to resolve. This will include every user who has a valid prediction on at least 25 of those questions. For each user included the comparison will be between the Metaculus prediction Brier score over the subset of questions that user has predicted and the user's Brier score for those same questions.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.