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Initial Jobless Claims in November 2020

Context

Initial jobless claims reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.

Greatly impacted by the spread of the CoronaVirus, the number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019.

The level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market, which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.

Therefore, we ask: What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?

Resolution Criteria

The resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the Federal Reserve, or through the reports organized on Econoday’s calendar. This monthly average will reflect the 4-week average of the weekly values reported. For example, in September, the weekly values starting from the reporting date on September 5 and ending with the reporting date on September 26 (893k, 866k, 873k, and 837k respectively) averaged a monthly value for September at 867k, which would then act as the resolution to that question.

The dates that will be taken into account for November are 11/7, 11/14, 11/21, and 11/28. These should be the dates recorded on the Federal reserve, although the release of data may take a day or two after the culmination of that week.

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