How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?

Your submission is now in Draft mode. Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Question

Netflix was founded August 29, 1997 has gone from a DVD sales and rental service to one of the largest video-on-demand services online.

In 2013, Netflix expanded into film and television production, starting to produce original content.

As of July 2017, Netflix had 103.95 million subscribers worldwide, including 51.92 million in the United States. Netflix then had more subscribers in the US than cable.

This question was created as a response to the Twitter-prediction of venture capitalist Jason Calacanis who boldly predicted Netflix would have 250 million subscribers by 18 July, 2022.

As reported by an data release by Netflix or another organization that credibly has accurate numbers, how many subscribers will Netflix have on August 1, 2022?

Linear interpolation between two commensurate values closest to August 1, 2022 and prior to Oct. 1 2022 will be used.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site