modeling intelligent wisdom formulating calibrated predictions crowdsourcing definitive estimations computing accurate wisdom composing calibrated insights mapping the future predicting accurate predictions computing definitive futures delivering contingent insights crowdsourcing calibrated futures forecasting quantitative forecasts aggregating probable forecasts mapping precise forecasts crowdsourcing predictive estimations
Rankings Categories Find Questions

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?

Netflix was founded August 29, 1997 has gone from a DVD sales and rental service to one of the largest video-on-demand services online.

In 2013, Netflix expanded into film and television production, starting to produce original content.

As of July 2017, Netflix had 103.95 million subscribers worldwide, including 51.92 million in the United States. Netflix then had more subscribers in the US than cable.

This question was created as a response to the Twitter-prediction of venture capitalist Jason Calacanis who boldly predicted Netflix would have 250 million subscribers by 18 July, 2022.

As reported by an data release by Netflix or another organization that credibly has accurate numbers, how many subscribers will Netflix have on August 1, 2022?

Linear interpolation between two commensurate values closest to August 1, 2022 and prior to Oct. 1 2022 will be used.

Categories: Computing – Software, Entertainment, Technology – Internet

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site
random question question list

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.